AS PART of the ongoing series of entries here on the decline of marriage and fatherlessness, Jesse Powell reports below on the final 2007 figures for out-of-wedlock births. These numbers are stark evidence of the ongoing shift to a matriarchal society. Three years ago, illegitimacy rates were close to 30 percent for whites, 50 percent for Hispanics and 70 percent for blacks. These rates are higher now.

Jesse Powell writes:

The Final Birth Data for 2007 has just come out, so it’s time for an update on what the out-of-wedlock birth statistics are telling us. 

It’s important to note that Hispanics are counted under a separate ethnic group and under a racial category; it could be white, black, or another race.  In this way Hispanics are counted twice, once as Hispanics and a second time under some racial category.  So, you have the categories “White,” meaning whites of European ancestry combined with Hispanics who consider themselves white, and “non-Hispanic Whites” meaning only whites of European ancestry.  The vast majority of Hispanics consider themselves to be white, but in reality from a cultural point of view a Hispanic who categorizes themselves as white is much more Hispanic than they are white.  It is misleading and unwarranted to group European whites and light-skinned Hispanics, or more precisely all but the darkest skinned Hispanics, into the same racial category.  Therefore, in all the mentions I make to racial categories below, when I say “White” or “Black” I mean non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black. 

On the measure of out-of-wedlock birth ratio, for the year 2007, Hispanic-Whites had a ratio of 50.4%, Hispanic-Blacks had a ratio of 65.1%, and Hispanics overall had a ratio of 51.3%. 

The majority of Hispanic births in the United States are of children born to Mexican parents.  In 2007, 67.9% of Hispanic births were to Mexicans.  This brings up the subject of Mexico, the origin of about two thirds of the Hispanic population in the United States.  The social problems seen in the U.S. Hispanic population are not comparable to family breakdown in Mexico; the Mexican family in Mexico functions much better than the Hispanic family in the United States. 

Many children are born out-of-wedlock in Mexico, but the great majority of those births are to cohabiting couples.  Also, the divorce rate in Mexico is very low.  During the past 20 years there has been a significant shift away from marital births and towards cohabiting births, but there has only been a small increase in births to single women. 

In Mexico, in 1987, 68.0% of births were to married couples, 23.7% were to co-habiting couples, and 8.3% were to single women.  In 2007, 46.6% of births were to married couples, 41.7% were to co-habiting couples, and 11.7% were to single women.  The divorce rate in Mexico, in 2007, was 13.0%. 

In the United States there is no strong tendency for Hispanics to cohabitate instead of marry.  The ratio of married couples to cohabiting couples raising children in the United States is similar between the black and Hispanic populations. 

Incidentally, the fertility rate of Mexican women in the United States is significantly greater than the fertility rate of Mexican women in Mexico.  In 2007, the total fertility rate of Mexican women in the U.S. was 3.11 children per woman.  Back in Mexico, the estimated TFR in 2009 was 2.34 children per woman. 

Below is a table of the racial breakdown of the U.S. population, estimated as of July 1, 2007, and the race of the children born here, and fertility rate for each population.                    

Here are age groups of mothers, for the year 2007. 

Under 20     20-24    25-29     30-34    35-39    over 40

Now we will look at how the out-of-wedlock ratio changed from 2004 to 2007 among the different age groups in the racial categories, and the rate of increase the change in ratios implies.  In calculating the rate of increase, I assume the number of births inside marriage to be fixed and then examine how fast the number of births outside  marriage increased, expressed as percent of increase per year. 

First, the out-of-wedlock ratio of the white population; years 2004 and 2007.  R/C stands for Rate of Change.  

The above table indicates that the overall pattern of the out-of-wedlock ratio growing faster among younger women than for older women still holds true.  However, there is a notable exception to this in the growth spurt in the out-of-wedlock ratio among 25 to 35 year old white women.  Overall, the Hispanic out-of-wedlock birth rate is growing faster than it is for whites or black.  Even though the growth in the black out-of-wedlock birth ratio is the slowest, this is still a disappointment because in the 10 year period before 2004 the black out-of-wedlock ratio went down slightly.  Here’s another item of interest: the 35 to 39 year old age category among white women has the lowest out-of-wedlock birth ratio, not the 30 to 34 year old category as it was previously.  The transition year was 2005 when the white out-of-wedlock ratio for both age groups, 30 to 34 and 35 to 39, was exactly 9.2%.  Since then, the 30 to 34 age group has had the higher illegitimacy rate.  This change is a bit historic.  Going back to at least 1955 it has always been the 30 to 34 age group that is most likely to be married when they have children. 

With the release of the 2007 data, another milestone has been crossed. As mentioned, the age group, among whites, with the lowest out-of-wedlock birth ratio is now the 35 to 39 year old category, with a ratio of 10.3%.  In 1955, among whites, the out-of-wedlock birth ratio for 15 to 17 year old girls was 10.2%; so it can now be said, white girls 15 to 17 years old were more capable and prepared to get married before they had children in 1955 than any group of white women today, no matter how old. 

For comparison’s sake, in 1955 the white out-of-wedlock birth ratio for girls 15 to 17 years old was 10.2%.  In 2007 the white out-of-wedlock birth ratio for girls 15 to 17 years old was 91.0%.  What a difference 52 years, two generations, makes.

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Jesse adds:

The growth rates in illegitimacy from 2005 to 2008 for the different racial groups were; 5.8% for whites, 4.0% for blacks, and 6.2% for Hispanics. Adding two years of growth at those growth rates to the actual data for 2008 leads to estimates of illegitimacy for the current year 2010 of 31.0% for whites, 73.8% for blacks, and 55.5% for Hispanics.

Jesse writes:

For those interested in family breakdown in Mexico, and its recent manifestation of youth groups attacking each other, I recommend this article. 

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