Marriage in the Major Cities « The Thinking Housewife

Marriage in the Major Cities

May 31, 2011

JESSE POWELL writes:

According to U.S. Census statistics released last week, six of the 25 largest cities in America have such high levels of family breakdown that the majority of homes with children are not headed by a married couple. Those cities are Boston, Washington D. C., Philadelphia, Memphis, Baltimore and Detroit.

The Married Families ratio (the proportion of homes with children under 18 headed by a married couple) continued to decline in all of the 25 most populous cities except New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

It held virtually steady in New York and increased by almost four percentage points in Washington, D.C. Looking at the figures for major cities, one finds vast differences. Chicago had a significantly higher Married Families ratio (57.3 percent), than both Philadelphia (44.4 percent) and Boston (49.1). The ratio was 62 percent in Phoenix and 37.5 percent in Baltimore. Heavily Hispanic cities have more married couples than comparably black cities.

The Married Families ratio in the worst city in 1950 was better than the best city in 2010, by a wide margin (83.6% versus 76.5%). Blacks had a higher Married Families ratio in 1950 than whites did in the year 2000 (80.1% versus 77.6%). (A racial breakdown for 2010 is not yet available, but the comparison obviously still holds.)

In 1950, the Married Families ratio for the nation overall was 92.3 percent. In 2010, the Married Families ratio for the nation overall dropped to 67.9 percent.

The proportion of the black Married Families ratio compared to that for whites in 1950 was 86% ( 80.1 / 93.4 ); this proportion dropped to 54 percent in the year 2000 ( 41.8 / 77.6 ). In other words, the gap between blacks and whites increased significantly from 1950 to 2000. Looking at the Married Families ratio of the worst city in 1950 compared to the best city one finds that the ratio is 90 percent( 83.6 / 93.2 ); in 2010 this ratio fell to 40 percent ( 30.8 / 76.5 ); in other words, the separation between the best city and the worst city increased dramatically from 1950 to 2010.

Looking at the change in the Married Families ratios simply from 2000 to 2010 and comparing the cities that are above the national average with those whose ratios are below 50%, the cities that already have low Married Families ratios have declined more severely, on average, than the cities that are above the national average.

Family breakdown grows hyperbolically and does so from beginning to the end. It appears to grow exponentially over the short to intermediate term as over a short period of time the rate of growth doesn’t change that much and so appears linear or constant. The growing distance between the white and black Married Families ratios is a perfect illustration of hyperbolic growth; the same is true for the growing distance between the best and the worst cities. In exponential growth, the rate of change remains constant over time; in hyperbolic growth the rate of change increases as the underlying phenomenon increases. Family breakdown accelerates as it becomes more severe; this is true both for racial groups and for cities.

The table below includes the 25 largest cities today, illustrating how much their population has changed over the past decade, how much of their population is white or Asian, and their Married Families ratios in the years 1950, 2000 and 2010.

The labels in the table are: Pop. (Population, the population of the city in 2010); change (change, the change in the population from 2000 to 2010); W/A (White or Asian, the proportion of the population that is either non-Hispanic white or Asian alone); 1950 (year 1950, the Married Families ratio in the year 1950, the Married Families ratio is the proportion of family households with own children under the age of 18 that are headed by a married couple); 2000 (year 2000, the Married Families ratio in the year 2000); 2010 (year 2010, the Married Families ratio in the year 2010).

Married Families ratio in the 25 largest cities today from 1950 to 2010

	Pop.	change	W/A	1950	2000	2010
United States	308,746	9.7%	68.4%	92.3%	71.8%	67.9%
New York	8,175	2.1%	45.9%	90.7%	59.3%	59.4%
Los Angeles	3,793	2.6%	39.8%	89.5%	67.6%	65.5%
Chicago	2,696	-6.9%	37.1%	91.4%	58.5%	57.3%
Houston	2,099	7.5%	31.5%	89.9%	67.0%	62.0%
Philadelphia	1,526	0.6%	43.2%	88.3%	49.0%	44.4%
Phoenix	1,446	9.4%	49.5%	86.6%	68.0%	62.0%
San Antonio	1,327	16.0%	28.9%	90.1%	67.1%	61.1%
San Diego	1,307	6.9%	60.7%	89.3%	72.1%	71.6%
Dallas	1,198	0.8%	31.6%	92.5%	64.1%	60.8%
San Jose	946	5.7%	60.4%	0.0%	78.1%	76.5%
Jacksonville	822	11.7%	59.3%	83.6%	64.1%	58.5%
Indianapolis	820	4.9%	60.7%	89.5%	60.2%	53.4%
San Francisco	805	3.7%	74.9%	88.8%	73.6%	73.8%
Austin	790	20.4%	54.9%	91.2%	69.0%	67.4%
Columbus	787	10.6%	63.3%	90.7%	58.9%	53.2%
Fort Worth	741	38.6%	45.4%	93.2%	68.2%	67.5%
Charlotte	731	35.2%	50.0%	90.5%	67.0%	62.3%
Detroit	714	-25.0%	8.8%	91.0%	36.9%	30.8%
El Paso	649	15.2%	15.3%	89.2%	70.1%	63.7%
Memphis	647	-0.5%	29.1%	88.5%	47.2%	41.9%
Baltimore	621	-4.6%	30.3%	88.6%	39.1%	37.5%
Boston	618	4.8%	55.9%	91.2%	52.0%	49.1%
Seattle	609	8.0%	80.0%	89.9%	69.9%	72.3%
D. C.	602	5.2%	38.3%	86.4%	42.2%	46.0%
Nashville	601	5.5%	59.4%	86.6%	61.9%	58.1%