JESSE POWELL writes:

Same-sex “marriage” is legal in New York State tomorrow. On the eve of this grand experiment, it is interesting to look at how family life is faring in the Empire State. In certain areas, it is not doing well at all, especially in upstate New York. New York’s lawmakers apparently did not notice the social problems that literally surround them before launching an attack on marital traditions. 

Like much of America, New York is a two-tier society, with marriage holding up among the higher functioning segments and in extreme disrepair among the lower functioning.

This report looks at five cities: New York City, America’s largest city; Rochester, a troubled city just south of Lake Ontario; Albany, the state’s capital; and Schenectady and Troy, small cities not far from Albany. All five of these cities share one thing in common, and that is a major decline in their white populations in absolute numbers since 1970. The declines in white populations, from 1970 to 2010, are as follows: New York, 55%; Rochester, 68%; Albany, 48%; Schenectady, 49%; and Troy, 41%. 

The path of New York City is much different than the other four cities listed; New York’s total population increased over the period while the population of the other cities declined and in addition the white population of New York became more affluent as the total white population shrank; this indicates that lower functioning whites left while higher functioning whites stayed or moved in. 

The 1970s was a very bad decade for New York; during that decade the city lost 39% of its white population and its black population suffered a major decline, from 60.7% to 44.7%, in its Married Families Ratio (MFR), the proportion of families with children that are married. Interestingly, the MFR for whites in New York only fell a little bit during this decade, from 84.7% to 82.0%. After 1980 the black MFR fell slowly but steadily while the white MFR has hardly changed at all. New York has continued to lose white population every decade but its family situation after the dramatic decline of the 1970s has held steady. 

The other 4 cities aren’t so lucky; Rochester, Albany, Schenectady, and Troy have all seen relentless declines in family stability among both blacks and whites. All four cities have seen continuous reduction in their white populations while at the same time continuous increases in their black populations. Of these cities, Troy has fared the worst when accounting for race; half of its white children and one fifth of its black children lived with married parents in 2010. 

Rochester, Schenectady and Troy all have glorious histories as manufacturing centers or textile producers. Rochester, first known as “The Young Lion of the West” and later as “Flour City,” became the biggest flour producer in the United States by 1838. Later, in the early 1900s, Rochester was a center of the garment industry, particularly men’s fashions. The population peaked in 1950, at 332,000, and has been falling ever since. Schenectady became the headquarters of General Electric in 1892. The city later dubbed itself “The City that Lights and Hauls the World” in honor of General Electric and the American Locomotive Company which manufactured locomotives. The city’s population peaked in 1930 at 96,000 people. Troy is known as the Collar City due to its fame as a producer of shirt collars and other textiles. It also at one point was the second largest producer of iron in the country, second only to Pittsburgh. Troy was one of the richest cities in the United States as late as the early 1900s. Troy’s population peaked in 1910 at 77,000. 

Once their industrial economies declined, these cities became especially vunerable to the sexual revolution. Rochester, Schenectady and Troy all had Married Families Ratios above 80% in 1970, now only Schenectady has a Married Families Ratio above 40% (at 43.1%). 

The tables below examine New York, Albany, Rochester, Schenectady, and Troy since 1970.

Definitions for the tables below: The Married Families Ratio is the proportion of all families with own children under 18 years old that are headed by a married couple. An “own child” is the biological child or step-child or adopted child of the householder. The Married Parents Ratio is the proportion of all own children under 18 years old that live with married parents. “White” refers to all whites in 1970; to non-Hispanic whites in 1980 and 1990; and to non-Hispanic white alone in 2000 and 2010. “Black” refers to all blacks (except in regards to Married Families Ratios and Married Parents Ratios for the years 2000 and 2010 where it refers to black alone). In the Married Parents Ratio table “W” stands for White and “B” stands for Black so that “W/2000” can be read as “Whites in the year 2000.”

Total Population of Cities in Thousands

Proportion of Population that is White

Proportion of Population that is Black

Married Families Ratio of Total Population

Married Families Ratio of White Population

Married Families Ratio of Black Population

Married Parents Ratio of Total Population, of White Population, and of Black Population

U.S. Census figures used in this report can be found here, here, here and here.

                                                  — Comments —

Bob writes:

Troy and Schenectady are homes to RPI and Union College, respectively, two elite colleges that serve the upper middle class (and upper class in the case of Union). Both have a shared history that goes back to the early 1800s. They even shared a president intially.

What will happen to these schools in the long run if they are surrounded by ever-increasing squalor and crime?

I taught civil engineering (now defunct) at Union from 1970 to 1972. It was a very nice place then.

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