You’ll notice that every region saw increases in their number of FICTs even though the background for each region (except Utah) was negative moving farther away from 2.5 children per married couple with children and moving farther away from a MPR of 90%.  I would consider the background indicators for Utah to be neutral; their fertility indicator moved up a little bit and their MPR moved down a little bit.  Still, the proportion of Utah’s white children living in FICTs went up 14% over the decade meaning even in Utah there is evidence of a more conservative sub-culture fighting against the overall trend.

It should also be noted that the best MPRs among the FICTs improved from 2000 to 2010 in the Haredi Jew region, the Amish region, and in the Christian Patriarchy Movement region (the Mormon region of Utah stayed the same on this measure).  The top censust tract in the Haredi Jew region went from 98.9% to 99.3%; in the Amish region went from 97.6% to 98.5%; in the Christian region went from 96.0% to 96.9%.

To me the most important area to look at is the Christian, which makes up the vast majority of the country.  Haredi Jews, Amish, and Mormons are well established religious minorities able to boast of social indicators above the national norm.  The states without large groups of these religious minorities are able to show whether positive religious influences are being felt outside of the already existing religious minority groups.  I am attributing the improvements to the culture in the “nation at large” to the “Christian Patriarchy Movement.”  The Christian Patriarchy Movement is not as well established or concentrated as the other religious minority groups but it is less of a departure from America’s traditions.  The number of FICTs attributable to the Christian Patriarchy Movement is the smallest and they are spread out throughout the country but they also, I maintain, have the greatest potential for growth in the future.

In 2000 there were 14 FICTs in the “Rest of the Nation”.  They were allocated among the following states: Illinois, 2; Idaho, 4 (there are Mormons in Idaho); Maryland, 3; California, 1; Michigan, 1; Missouri, 1; South Dakota, 1; Kansas, 1.

In 2010 there were 33 FICTs in the “Rest of the Nation”.  They were allocated among the following states:  Illinois, 6; Idaho, 6; Maryland, 3; California, 1; Michigan, 5; Missouri, 3; South Dakota, 1; Kansas, 1; Texas, 1; Washington, 3; Wisconsin, 1; Iowa, 2.

The remarkable thing is that the major growth in FICTs in the “Rest of the Nation” is concentrated around the Great Lakes region in the Mid-West (with an additional surge of from 0 to 3 in the state of Washington).  Illinois went from 2 to 6; Michigan went from 1 to 5; Missouri went from 1 to 3; Iowa went from 0 to 2; Wisconsin went from 0 to 1 (Indiana is counted as an Amish state).  All these are Mid-Western states.  Aside from Washington State and the clustering in the Mid-West the only states showing increases were Idaho (from 4 to 6) and Texas (from 0 to 1).  I suspect the hard times in the Mid-West with many areas having particularly poor family indicators is the reason why the Christian Patriarchy Movement shows particular strength in this area of the country.

Below is a list of the 33 Census Tracts in the “Rest of the Nation” (excluding Florida, Indiana, New Jersey, New York,  Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Utah) that have at least 2.500 children per married couple family with children and a Married Parents Ratio of at least 90.0% and at least 500 children (all these measures applying to the white alone Non-Hispanic population):

Definitions:  “A/C” is the average number of children per married couple with children; “MPR” is the Married Parents Ratio, the proportion of children living with married parents; “CP” is the child population.  All measures refer to the non-Hispanic white alone population.  Regarding the “A/C” measure and the “MPR” measure it is “own children” that is being referred to.  An “own child” is the biological or adopted or step-child of the householder.  Regarding the “CP” or “Child Population” all children are included.

Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder; 2000 SF1 100% Data: Tables P028I and P034I; 2010 SF1 100% Data: Tables P31I and P38I

— Comments —

Nicholas S. writes:

“The remarkable thing is that the major growth in FICTs in the “Rest of the Nation” is concentrated around the Great Lakes region in the Mid-West (with an additional surge of from 0 to 3 in the state of Washington). Illinois went from 2 to 6; Michigan went from 1 to 5; Missouri went from 1 to 3; Iowa went from 0 to 2; Wisconsin went from 0 to 1 (Indiana is counted as an Amish state). All these are Mid-Western states. Aside from Washington State and the clustering in the Mid-West the only states showing increases were Idaho (from 4 to 6) and Texas (from 0 to 1). I suspect the hard times in the Mid-West with many areas having particularly poor family indicators is the reason why the Christian Patriarchy Movement shows particular strength in this area of the country.”

I believe that almost all of these are due to Amish. Gaines County, TX, has seen a large influx of Hutterites recently. Hamlin County, SD, also has Hutterites. Buchanan County, IA, has a significant Amish population. This is not to say that the quiverfull or similar movements may not at some point become demographically visible, but that that point has not yet been reached.

Mr. Powell writes:

I would like to add more information on the subject of how many of the FICTs in the “Rest of Nation” are in reality affiliated with one of the already established minority religions. After doing some specific research on the subject it turns out the great majority are, though not all (that I can tell). 

In the nation overall in 2010 there were 260 FICTs containing 404,294 white children; of these 225 FICTs containing 365,574 white children were in the states of Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, or Utah. The rest of the 44 states in the nation and Washington D.C. contained 35 FICTs with 38,720 white children. 

Of the 35 FICTs in the “Rest of the Nation” I would characterize 7 as being unaffiliated or not associated with an already established minority religion. These 7 FICTs contain 9,318 white children. These 7 FICTs are:

Douglas County, Illinois CT 9523
Moultrie County, Illinois CT 9769
Pottawatomie County, Kansas CT 3
Houghton County, Michigan CT 1
Clark County, Washington CT 401.01
Clark County, Washington CT 401.02
Clark County, Washington CT 405.04

 I counted a FICT as being associated with an already established minority religion if a large minority religious population was located in either the county or city of the census tract. I must admit, 28 out of 35 FICTs located in the “Rest of the Nation” being affiliated with an already established minority religion is much more than I thought it would be. The already established minority religions of Haredi Jews, Amish, Mennonites, and Mormons are hugely more likely to produce a FICT than the rest of nation is. 

Here is the religious affiliation of the other FICTs in the “Rest of the Nation”: 

Los Angeles, California: Jewish
Idaho: Mormon
Cook County, Illinois: Jewish
Buchanan and Clayton County, Iowa: Amish
Baltimore city, Maryland: Jewish
Oakland and Wayne County, Michigan: Jewish
Audrain, Scotland, and Webster County, Missouri: Amish
Hamlin County, South Dakota: Mennonite
Gaines County, Texas: Mennonite
Green Lake County, Wisconsin: Amish
Miami, Florida: Jewish

 So, what does all this mean? About 1% of the nation’s white children live in census tracts with high fertility and highly intact families. Of this 1% of white children 98% live in census tracts based on an insular minority religion. A grand total of 2% of 1% of white children (9,318 to be exact) live in what I’d call a likely Christian Patriarchy Movement census tract. The good news is that these kinds of census tracts showed growth from 2000 to 2010 even though the overall family indicators in the nation declined.