JESSE POWELL writes:

The National Center for Health Statistics recently released the Final Birth Data for 2008 and the Preliminary Birth Data for 2009. The most important news from these reports is that the economic crisis appears to have caused a period of social stress. This period is in some ways similar to the time from 1994 to 2003 when the growth in out-of-wedlock births radically slowed. Looking back on those years, which I earlier dubbed the “cultural conservative revival,” I have discovered that while it is true the growth in the out-of-wedlock ratio slowed markedly during that period, it is also true that the decline in the proportion of women of childbearing age who were married accelerated. Risk aversion, not a renewal of the traditional family, appears to explain both this increased preference for having children within marriage and reluctance to marry. 

The data for births in 2008 and 2009 (though the 2009 numbers are preliminary) indicate that the rate of increase in out-of-wedlock ratio has slowed again, by about half; the birth rate of both married and unmarried women has fallen; and the rate of decline in the proportion of married women (15 to 44 years old) has increased. The economic slowdown appears the most likely explanation for this increased risk aversion.

The most striking characteristic of the data for 2008 and 2009 is the sharp drop in the fertility rate. Between 2007 and 2009, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for non-Hispanic whites fell from 1.9 to 1.8; for non-Hispanic blacks, from 2.1 to 2.0, and for Hispanics, from 3 to 2.8. 

Below is a table detailing the overall illegitimacy ratio (%Ill.); the birth rate for unmarried women (UnMar b/r); for married women (Mar b/r); the proportion of women 15 to 44 who are married (%Mar); and the overall Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for selected years since 1980. From this table you can see what the overall trend has been for the past 30 years in these indicators and how the periods of “heightened risk aversion”; 1994 to 2003 and 2007 to 2009; differ from what is the typical trend.

(The data in the tables below comes from original data from government sources as well as my own calculations using data from government sources.)

It is helpful to see how things have developed over a longer time span. I want to put a special emphasis on how the two different factors that affect illegitimacy have changed over time. These factors are the ratio of the unmarried birth rate to the married birth rate and the proportion of women of reproductive age who are unmarried. The out-of-wedlock ratio is by definition the number of children born out-of-wedlock compared to the number of children born within wedlock. This is very important to keep in mind. The illegitimacy rate has risen as the fertility of married women has declined. 

In 1950 the out-of-wedlock ratio among whites was 1.8 percent. By 2008, this ratio grew to 28.7 percent. How did this happen?

In 1950, 71 percent of white women were married (15 to 44 years old); the birth rate among married women was 139 births per 1,000 women per year and the birth rate among unmarried women was only six per 1,000 women. This explains why the out-of-wedlock ratio was less than two percent at this time; the ratio of the birth rate of married women compared to unmarried women was more than 20 to 1 and the number of married women was greater than the number of unmarried women by a factor of about 2.5 to 1. Combine (multiply) these two ratios together and you get the number of married births being greater than the number of unmarried births by a factor of greater than 50 to 1. By 2008, 49.9 percent of (non-Hispanic) white women were married and the birth rate among white married women had dropped to 84.2 while the birth rate of unmarried white women had soared to 33.7. 

As is well known, out-of-wedlock births started rising sharply in 1960. What is less well known is that the out-of-wedlock ratio rose dramatically for older white women from 1931 to 1960, and very significantly for older black women as well.

As is shown in the tables below the out-of-wedlock ratio for white women 30 years old and older was about 4.5 per thousand in 1931 but by 1960 these ratios had risen to about 10, 13, and 16 per thousand in the 30-34, 35-39, and 40 and over age categories respectively. Among black women over 30 these ratios more than doubled over the same time period. Looking at the unmarried birth rate among whites from 1940 to 1960 the overall rate increased from 3.6 to 9.2 (per 1,000) and more than tripled once teenagers are excluded (and more than quadrupled in the 25 to 34 age categories). Looking at the overall out-of-wedlock ratio among whites the ratio went from two percent in 1940 to 2.3% in 1960, not a very dramatic increase, but this is only because of the increase in the marriage rate among white women. From 1940 to 1960, the marriage rate for whites (the proportion of women who were married) went from 60.9 percent to 72.3 percent overall (ages 15 to 44) and for the age group 25 to 34 years old this proportion went from 77.3 percent to 88.5 percent. It needs to be remembered, the overall birth rate for all women was 79.9 in 1940 and 118.0 in 1960 (for whites these rates were 77.1 in 1940 and 113.2 in 1960). 

In addition to this evidence of trouble brewing before 1960 it is also interesting to note that the number of “shotgun weddings” rose dramatically in the 50 years before 1960, especially among blacks. A “shotgun wedding” is where the woman is already pregnant at the time of the marriage but the child is born within wedlock as the parents get married before the child is born. In the 1900 to 1909 period 7.4 percent of white marriages and 11.8 percent of black marriages were shotgun weddings. In the 1955 to 1959 period 16.0 percent of white marriages were of the shotgun variety while for blacks from 1950 to 1959 a full 41.3 percent of marriages were shotgun weddings.

Finally, I want to provide some tables showing what has gone on in regards to out-of-wedlock births since 1931. First of all I think it would be helpful to start with the age distributions of childbearing women. I give the age distribution for the years 1940 and 2008 to show how the ages at which women give birth have changed over this period of time. In 1940, the racial categories are White and Non-white but the Non-white category effectively means Black since, in 1940, 95.4 percent of Non-white births were Black. The racial category of “Black” is not introduced until 1970 (in 1970 89.4 percent of Nonwhite births were Black). In 2008 the racial categories are non-Hispanic White (which I refer to as “nhWhite”) and Black (which includes all Blacks). 

Age distribution of mother, 1940 and 2008 for Whites and Blacks    

Next I will provide tables showing the development of out-of-wedlock births by age group for blacks and whites from 1931 up until 2008. The racial categories I use are White, which includes all whites, and non-Hispanic White (referred to as nhWhite), which excludes Hispanics who count themselves as white. In the early years there are very few Hispanics and so “White” and “non-Hispanic White” mean effectively the same thing. In the tables below the category “non-Hispanic White” doesn’t come into being until the year 2000. For the year 1970 I provide information on both Nonwhites and Blacks and for the year 2000 I provide information on both Whites and non-Hispanic Whites.

 Out-of-wedlock ratios by age group for Whites, 1931 to 2008 

Out-of-wedlock ratios by age group for Blacks, 1931 to 2008 

Getting back to the theme that the out-of-wedlock ratio is made up of two components; the ratio of the unmarried birth rate to the married birth rate and the ratio of the number of unmarried women compared to the number of married women, I now wish to focus on what has happened to the out-of-wedlock birth ratio for women 20-24 years old. Up until just a few decades ago, 20-to-24 year old women had the highest birth rate of any group of women. For women, childbearing in their early twenties was perfectly reasonable. That has changed dramatically with the widespread movement of women into the job market.  

So, how did things change from 1940 when the out-of-wedlock ratio among women 20 to 24 years old among whites was just 2.3 percent and for blacks was just 13.6 percent to where things stand now in 2008 where the out-of-wedlock ratio for this group is 50.6 percent among whites and 85.4 percent among blacks? The below table goes through the process of how this developed looking at the Illegitimacy ratio for this age group (Ill.), the percent of 20 to 24 year old women who were married (%Mar), the unmarried birth rate of these women (UnMar b/r), the married birth rate (Mar b/r), the ratio of the married birth rate divided by the unmarried birth rate (Ratio), and finally the proportion of all births that women 20 to 24 accounted for (%ofBirths).

Childbearing behavior among White women 20 to 24 years old, 1940 to 2008 

Childbearing behavior among Black women 20 to 24 years old, 1940 to 2008 

[Note: Many of the data points I include above are calculated using related items of information given in various reports. None of the information included in this report is “estimated” meaning in no case did I make any adjustments to information I was given to try to get more accurate results. All of the information I use above is either directly given to me or is directly calculable using information that was directly given to me (this does not mean all data given is accurate to the level of precision indicated by the number of decimal points used, however if the original data given to me was absolutely precise then all of my calculations would be absolutely precise as well). I have a high level of confidence in the accuracy of all the data used in this report. The preliminary government data for 2009 is available here and for 2008, here. Other sources are: Trends in Illegitimacy,United States – 1940 – 1965, National Vital Statistics System, Series 21 Number 15; Vital Statistics of the United States; Vital Statistics Rates of the United States, 1940-1960, Vital Statistics of the United States of 1990, and Birth, Still Birth, and Infant Mortality Statistics for the Birth Registration Area of the United States 1931.]

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