More Tests, More Infections
Christof Kuhbandner, professor of psychology at the University of Regensburg, writes on the illusion of drastically increasing numbers of the corona-infected. In Germany, he writes, the numbers are rising but the disease was at its peak in March. (In related news, a German laboratory claims the tests trigger false positives for other corona viruses.)
Kuhbandner writes:
This can be illustrated by a simple everyday example: Let us assume that ten eggs are hidden in a garden every day (the true number of new infections). On the first day, the children are only allowed to search for one minute and they find one egg, on the second day two minutes and they find two eggs, and on the third day they are allowed to search four minutes and they find four eggs (increasing the number of tests over the time). The children could now get the misleading impression that they are exponentially more eggs (new infections) hidden in the garden every day because they find exponentially more eggs every day. But of course this is a problematic interpretation, because in reality there were always the same number of eggs (new infections) hidden in the garden. (more…)


