Race Was Not the Key Factor in Romney’s Defeat
JESSE POWELL writes:
Even though it is clear that non-whites vote Democratic much more than whites do, it is also true that the racial make-up of the states that voted for Obama is not that much different from the states that voted for Romney. In actuality, the racial make-up of the states that Obama won actually favors Romney and yet Obama won those states anyways! Race is not as important a factor in voting as it appears when looking at voting by racial category. Oddly enough the White Childless Cohabitation Ratio appears to be a better predictor of how a state will vote than the racial make-up of the state even though the White Childless Cohabitation Ratio only factors in the family behaviors of whites as a predictor.
The overall social environment of a state appears to be more important than the racial make-up of a state in terms of voting.
Below is a little table showing the collective racial make-up of all the states voting for Obama versus all the states voting for Romney in the 2012 election (Florida is assumed to have voted for Obama) based on the 2010 Census. In addition I add in what the expected vote for Obama would have been based solely on race. (more…)